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2022 TOUR Championship Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

This article is part of our Golf Picks series.

Tour Championship Betting Preview

The 2021-22 season comes to a close in Atlanta with the TOUR Championship. 

All 30 players that have made it thus far are exempt into next year's four major championships and will be fighting for a massive payday this weekend with the winner taking home $18 million. The format for the season ending tournament is different than any other on Tour, with Scottie Scheffler starting at 10-under with a two-shot lead over Patrick Cantlay . Full starting positions can be found here . Will Zalatoris (back) is the lone player not teeing it up this week as the field consists of 18 of the top 20 players in the Official World Golf Rankings. Last year, Patrick Cantlay held onto his pre-tournament lead, defeating Jon Rahm by one stroke for his first TOUR Championship.

East Lake Golf Club has been the host of the final event since 2004 and has traditionally played as one of the most difficult tests on Tour with the best score since 2007 being 15-under. A par-70 at over 7,300 yards, water is in play on a few holes and the course's defense includes narrow fairways and length as six par-4s play over 450 yards and the par-3s require mid-to-long irons between 195-235 yards. That provides limited scoring opportunities with only a pair of par-5s and the thick rough puts a premium on finding fairways. Approach play tends to not be as big of a factor as at a typical setup, with golfers using driving play and scrambling to score well at East Lake.

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Exceptional at East Lake

These players, with a minimum of two appearances, have the lowest scoring average at East Lake since 2017.

• Xander Schauffele : 67.3
• Justin Thomas : 68.0
• Rory McIlroy : 68.1
• Viktor Hovland : 68.1
• Scottie Scheffler : 68.3

Starting in third place and four shots back is Schauffele, and if there's anyone that can make up the deficit based on their form at East Lake, it's him. The 2017 FedExCup champion also finished runner-up in 2020 but was unable to make up a seven-shot deficit to start the week. Schauffele loves the Bermuda greens at East Lake, where he's gaining .84 strokes putting over 20 career rounds. Starting six back is McIlroy, who has used his elite driving play for success at the course as he's led the field in strokes-gained off-the-tee in three of his last five appearances at the event. McIlroy is coming off a top-10 at the BMW Championship in which he led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green but lost 4.6 shots on the putting surface.

Drive For Show

The following five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes off the tee over their last 20 rounds.

• Scottie Scheffler : 0.92
• Matt Fitzpatrick : 0.90
• Sungjae Im : 0.84
• Cameron Young : 0.77
• Corey Conners : 0.76

Scheffler starts the week with a two-shot lead and that's not the only thing to like about him this week as he's the lone player to show up on both lists. In 2020, he led the field in strokes-gained approach en route to posting the second lowest score that week. He's also been dominant with his driver as of late, which should be a key advantage on East Lake's tight fairways. Beginning much farther down the leaderboard at one-under is Conners, who is always a prime target at a place that requires length and accuracy with driver as he's averaging over 300 yards off-the-tee while ranking 21st this season in driving accuracy. He's gaining a solid .67 strokes off-the-tee in his two TOUR Championship appearances.

TOUR Championship Bets: O utright Picks

How many players can realistically win this week? Most likely, it's only a handful. Last year, Kevin Na started eight back of the lead and shot 14-under (tied for the lowest gross with Jon Rahm) but still came up five short of Cantlay. Anyone starting less than four-under would need a record-breaking performance to become the FedExCup champion. As a result, I'm mainly looking at bets that don't factor in starting strokes to get better payout potential.

Justin Thomas (12-1 Without Starting Strokes)

Thomas has a great track record at East Lake with two runner-up finishes, one of which was prior to the new format. At three-under to start the week, it's hard to imagine he'll be able to make up enough ground but is more than capable of posting the low gross. Thomas is an impressive third in strokes-gained tee-to-green this season.

Matt Fitzpatrick (18-1 Without Starting Strokes)

Fitzpatrick enters as the eight choice on the board -- not bad for a guy who has emerged as an elite driver and is one of the best all-around golfers in the world. He's making his first trip to East Lake but there's little reason to think his game won't fit the course, as he plays his best golf under difficult setups.

Billy Horschel (35-1 Without Starting Strokes)

Horschel has an affinity for the event, winning it in 2014 and coming up two short of Tiger's triumph in 2018. He's in the midst of his best season statistically over the last four years and will look to use his strengths of driving accuracy and short game to work his way up the leaderboard this week.

TOUR Championship Bets: Other Wagers

Joaquin Niemann Top-5 Finish With Starting Strokes: 11-2

Niemann is probably going to have to shoot around 12-under to get into the top five, which should be within his range of outcomes. While he hasn't shown much previously at East Lake, he comes in with great form having gained 1.68 strokes from tee-to-green per round during the FedEx Cup Playoffs thus far.

Scott Stallings Top-5 Finish Without Starting Strokes: 7-1

Impressive to see Stallings qualify for his first TOUR Championship at the age of 37, but who is to say that the momentum can't continue for another week? He's one of the hottest golfers on Tour with a top-15 finish in five of his last six starts.

Be sure to stay on top of this week's event with everything RotoWire has to offer including the latest PGA odds, the most up-to-date PGA injury report , the TOUR Championship tournament field, and our expansive PGA stats database.

Golf Betting Tips: Our BEST BETS for the Tour Championship

The PGA Tour season finale has arrived and we have picked out the best bets for who we think can lift the FedEx Cup.

After Patrick Cantlay's thrilling win at the BMW Championship last week, he lifted himself into prime position to win the FedEx Cup and the top prize of $15 million.

Cantlay will begin on 10-under-par at East Lake in a format that first began in 2019, which ensures that the winner of the Tour Championship is also the winner of the FedEx Cup.

The staggered start of the tournament gives the bottom five players in the top 30 FedEx Cup places with a mountain to climb, as they begin on level-par.

Cantlay and Jon Rahm are the current betting favourites at 7/2. The World No. 1 will begin in Atlanta, Georgia on 6-under-par and four shots behind Cantlay.

RELATED:  THE BEST FOOTJOY GOLF SHOES SUITABLE FOR ALL CONDITIONS!

Here are our three selections for the Tour Championship.

Jon Rahm - 7/2

Although Jon Rahm is a very short price to win the Tour Championship, he has earned this with his consistent play in 2021. He won his maiden major title at the US Open back in June, and has since made three consecutive top-10 finishes.

He is starting only four shots behind Cantlay this week, which can easily be made up over four rounds. Rahm finished fourth in last year's Tour Championship, so he also has good form in the post-season finale.

Rory McIlroy - 25/1

Rory McIlroy won the Tour Championship in 2016, but he also won it in 2019 when the staggered format was first introduced, winning the event by four shots.

The Northern Irishman played well at the BMW Championship, finishing fourth on 22-under-par. This was his seventh top-10 finish in his last 20 PGA Tour events and I believe McIlroy offers good value starting eight shots behind Cantlay on Thursday.

Xander Schauffele - 33/1

Xander Schauffele has finished second three times this season and has earned himself an Olympic gold medal. He has finished tied third at The Masters and tied seventh at the US Open.

In both years where the staggered format has existed at the Tour Championship, Schauffele has finished second on both occasions. At 33/1 and starting eight shots behind Cantlay, I believe this is another selection of good value.

NEXT PAGE:  PGA TOUR FEDEX CUP: TOP 30 AT TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP AND STARTING SCORES

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TOUR Championship: Golf Betting Tips

Golf Betting Tips and Picks

The PGA Tour concludes its 2021-2022 campaign this week in Atlanta, Georgia, and it will be extremely interesting to see how it all shakes out. Will Scottie Scheffler hold onto his two-stroke lead and win for the first time, will Patrick Cantlay defend his title, or will someone emerge from lower down? These questions and more will be answered on Sunday evening, and I can't wait! We have all 30 players in action this week, but some are injured, so we may or may not see all 30 finish all four rounds.

There's an insane $75M purse to be won this week, and the winner takes home a ridiculous $18M. East Lake Golf Club is 7,346 yards in length, is a par 70, and the greens are Bermudagrass. The average winning score at this tournament over the last ten years, excluding starting strokes, is -11.3, so it's a fairly tricky course. Place bets on golfers who are accurate off the tee blocks (this stat is the most critical by far!), have a solid approach game, are sound off the tee, fabulous from tee to green, and can hit a long ball. 

Increase your odds of winning each one of your golf bets by   using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.

Three questions that are relevant to the TOUR Championship this week:

1. Which players have the most top 10's over their last five starts? Patrick Cantlay with 4, Tony Finau with 3, Scott Stallings with 3, and a few players have 2 including Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Smith, Sungjae Im, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott, and Brian Harman.

2. Bet with or without starting strokes this week? I'm quite honestly having a hard time figuring this one out myself. I think I'll be betting without starting strokes since the betting odds are more juicy, but I'll likely make a few starting stroke bets as well - especially outright wagers and top 5's.

3. Can Cantlay win the last two playoff events again and take the FedEx Cup once more? We have never seen a player defending the FedEx Cup, but Cantlay is well positioned to make some noise this week as he's 2nd only to Scottie Scheffler in terms of starting strokes at -8 versus Scottie's -10, and we know he can play well on this track since he won a year ago.

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Note that the below betting odds DON'T INCLUDE STARTING STROKES

+1000 and lower.

Patrick Cantlay (+750)   - He's peaking at just the right time of the season with four top 8's in his last five starts including winning last week's BMW Championship and he had a T2 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic three starts ago. Every part of his game is in great shape and he's fully capable of winning it all again this year - that would be $33M combined! I feel good about betting him to win, to finish top 5, and top 10.

Xander Schauffele (+750)   - Schauffele has been darn right deadly on this track as he had the best score here two years ago and had a T3 last year. He has two wins in his last five starts and is coming off a T3 last week where he gained 8.63 strokes ball-striking. It's not hard thinking about betting him the same way as Cantlay above.

Avoid: Jon Rahm (+900)   - The options here are just too juicy, I'll more than likely be betting Rahm to finish top 5 or top 10, but won't bet him outright since he just can't find a way to win right now unless you count the Mexico Open, of course. 

+1100 to +2000

Tony Finau (+1600)   - Finau has been stellar over his last four starts with two wins, a T5 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, and he wasn't nearly his best last week but was still better than average. If his approach game returns to form this week, he should have a solid finish and I'm good with betting him to finish top 5 and/or top 10.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+1800)   - He was really rolling along well with numerous top 10's recently including his U.S. Open win in late June, but he faltered last week in the approach category losing 7.68 strokes to the field. He seems to rebound in a hurry and I expect a top 5 or a top 10 out of him this week - bet him accordingly.

Avoid: Justin Thomas (+1200) - I love JT, but he has been experimenting and tinkering with things, and his approach game and putting haven't been too sharp as a result. I'll be ready to lay down money on him early next season I'm sure, but not this week.

+2100 to +3000

Adam Scott (+2200)   - Scott has been dialed in over the last two weeks with consecutive T5's and it's because his game is quite sound in every department, especially his short game as he has gained over 12 strokes combined between the two playoff events. I don't think I would bet him to finish top 5 again this week, but a top 10 wager is more than doable.

Corey Conners (+2800)   - He's a ball-striking machine and gained another 8.82 strokes in the stat category last week en route to a T5. If only his short game was a bit better than average, he would be constantly in contention to win as he lost 1.82 strokes between his around the game play and putting last week and still had a top 5. I'll look at him as a top 5 wager this week, but may only do a top 10 bet.

+3100 and higher

Scott Stallings (+8000)   - He has been on a big heater over his last six tournaments played with five top 13's including his runner-up last week where he lost to Cantlay by just one stroke. Everything has been fantastic lately, especially his ball-striking, and I may bet a couple of dollars for him to win this week, and will most certainly be betting him to finish top 5 and top 10.

Brian Harman (+6000)   - Harman should feel right at home this week in his home State, and he has three top 8's over his last six starts, so he has my attention. I'll be betting him to finish top 10 this week, and you may want to look at doing that as well.

Avoid: Tom Hoge (+15000)   - Outside of Hoge's T4 three starts ago, he has missed seven cut lines over his last nine starts and had a T48 last week with mediocre stats. I have him pegged to finish 30th this week, but he would still bank $500K for his efforts - not too shabby!

Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!

Jeremy Campbell

Jeremy has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 successful years, and actively plays golf, hockey, baseball, and table tennis. He has over three years of fantasy sports writing experience - including writing a daily fantasy sports strategies and tools eBook in 2016. He is an active member of DraftKings - specializing in NHL and PGA contests over the past 5 years. He enjoys spending time with his family, traveling to hot places in the frigid Canadian Winters, binge-watching on Netflix, and starting and managing digital businesses.

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THIS WEEK'S EVENTS

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Tour Championship 2021

Starts:  2nd September 2021 Course:  East Lake Golf Club, GA Par:  70 Length:  7,346 yards 2020   Champion:  Dustin Johnson

Overall Profit/Loss: -8.5 pts

Pre-event bets: -6 pts.

1pt  Win Only Justin Thomas (Tour Championship Winner) 18/1 @ Skybet 1pt  Win Only Dustin Johnson (Tour Championship Winner) 25/1 @ Skybet 1pt  Each Way Joaquin Niemann (72 hole strokeplay) 45/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-5) 2pts Win Only Jon Rahm First Round Leader 7/1 @ Bet365

In-Play Bets: -2.5 pts

4 September 2021 (-2.5pts) 2.5pts Hideki Matsuyama to beat Patrick Reed 10/11 @ Skybet

Course Info

Designer: Donald Ross Used Since:  2004 Fairways:  Average (thick rough) Greens:  Bermudagrass Water Hazards:  On 1 hole Par 5's:  6th and 18th Premium on: Driving  

Significant Info Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. There is no cut this week as it is a limited field. All 30 players will start the 72-hole event on Friday with a handicap based on their position in the FedEx Cup standings through last Sunday's BMW Championship. PLEASE NOTE: Bookmakers are running two different markets this week. The main market is Tour Championship winner which takes into account the handicap start. The other market is being called "Tour Championship without FedEx Cup strokes". This market is the lowest 72-hole score. Be careful when placing bets that you are betting on the right market.

Thursday Sunny and max wind of 6mph.

Friday Sunny and max wind of 8mph.

Saturday Sunny and max wind of 5mph.

Sunday Sunny and max wind of 7mph.

Winning Score Since the format changed in 2019, we have seen winning scores of -18 and -21. Handicap Rory McIlroy won in 2019 when starting with a five shot handicap.  Dustin Johnson led from start to finish last year. Recent Form Both winners since 2019 recorded top 20 finishes at the BMW Championship the week before.

World Ranking Since the new handicap system was introduced in 2019, the world ranking of the winners has been 3rd and 1st.

Stats Analysis

Three of the last five winners were ranked 1st for strokes gained: off the tee. The other winners, Tiger Woods and Dustin Johnson, were 6th and 7th.  The last five winners were all inside the top 10 for strokes gained: tee to green. East Lake is a complete ball strikers course. The last five winners have all been in the top 12 for strokes gained: putting and strokes gained: around the green. 

Birdie Holes The par 5's ( 6 th  and 18th ), are the easiest holes.  The par 3 11th played as the easiest hole in 2020 outside the par 5s. Fast or Slow Start Eight of the last eleven winners have been 1st after the 3rd round, and none have been outside the top 3. This is a tough course to play catch up.

Tour Championship In-Play Blog

5th September 2021, 08.15am (UK time)

Given his recent putting exploits, it was fitting that Patrick Cantlay holed a 23ft birdie putt at his final hole of round three to extend his lead to two shots at the Tour Championship.  

The American putted superbly last week on his way to winning the BMW Championship and has turned into a more than competent closer.  He's 4/5 to win from here and it's hard to confidently back against him.

Jon Rahm continues to be the man chasing Cantlay but he struggled with his approach play for the 2nd day in a row.  He's rated as a 6/4 shot but will need to play better to overturn the deficit.  Despite his poor iron play so far this week, he's outscored Cantlay by two shots over the first three rounds and can't be written off.

Justin Thomas (12/1) bogeyed the last yesterday and now has much ground to make up.  The world number 6 has won his last couple of tournaments with excellent final rounds, so he shouldn't be written off completely.  However, he'll likely need help from the leaders to win.  We backed Thomas pre-event so we're hoping he does have a strong final round.

The weather is likely to be favourable with no rain forecast and wind not expected to exceed 5mph.

With not much to split the final pair, we're happy to cheer on Thomas and sit the final round out.

Round 4 Bet

4th September 2021, 3:55pm (UK time)

Patrick Cantlay continues to lead the way at East Lake but his lead has now been cut to a single stroke.

The American now leads by a solitary stroke as he seeks to win for the second week and take the $15m FedEx Cup.  Interestingly, it's been a contrasting performance to the one at the BMW Championship.  The win in Baltimore was largely built on a great putting display but Cantlay has lost strokes on the greens in the opening two rounds.  Odds of 6/4 are fair given the players Cantlay has defeated in the heat of battle over the past 12 months.

Jon Rahm is the man chasing him and given he's made up three strokes on Cantlay so far, we continue to favour him.  We wouldn't put anyone off backing the Spaniard at even money.  Yesterday's approach play wasn't great though and we're happy to leave the outright market alone.  We have pre-event interest in the form of Justin Thomas and we'll see how the third round develops.

Round 3 Bet

• 2.5pts Hideki Matsuyama to beat Patrick Reed 10/11 @ Skybet

Hideki opened with a disastrous 77 but bounced back with a 65 yesterday.  All aspects of his game were poor on Thursday but his iron play was much improved in round two and he gained strokes in all areas of his game other than off the tee.  He's paired with Patrick Reed today and we think there is value with the current Masters champion to outscore the 2018 Masters champion.  Reed has lost strokes off the tee and with his irons in the opening two rounds and will need to improve if he's to defeat Matsuyama.  Reed feared for his life only two weeks ago after being admitted to hospital with pneumonia.  He's admitted he wouldn't be playing this week if it weren't for the Ryder Cup looming large and we think he may start to suffer from fatigue as the week wears on. 

3rd August 2021, 08:30am (UK time)

Patrick Cantlay has retained his two shot lead after an opening round of 67.  

The man chasing him is now world number one, Jon Rahm.  Rahm shot a joint best of the day 66 and is now a best price of 15/8 to win.  Both players are in exceptional form of late and from a betting perspective, it's hard to see past them.  

Rahm would be the player we'd favour at this stage but we're not particularly interested in backing him or Cantlay (5/2).  We're happy to see how the 2nd round develops and look to get involved tomorrow morning. 

The weather is likely to be favourable with no rain forecast and wind not expected to exceed 8mph.

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DP World Tour Championship Betting Tips 2022

Which players should you look out for at season-ending DP World Tour Championship?

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It’s the big one… the curtain-closer… the big showdown… the DP World Tour Championship on the Earth Course at Jumeirah Estates, Dubai. Who can dislodge Rory McIlroy and prevent the World No. 1 running away with the Race To Dubai for a fourth time?

The answer is “damn few” given the Northern Irishman’s blistering current form. Not satisfied with winning the FedEx Cup at the end of the last PGA Tour “year”, glorious Rory kicked off the new campaign by edging out Kurt Kitayama in last month’s CJ Cup in South Carolina. A Majors portfolio reading 2-8-5-3 for 2022 doesn’t sound too shabby either and it was a great regret that the ones that really count just eluded him.

He is a triple course winner but a while back in 2012, '14 and '15, and it is only a minor concern that his last two Jumeirah sorties have ended with him being beaten by five ( Collin Morikawa last year) and seven ( Jon Rahm in 2019) because his game and mind are in better order now. The 7/2 quote in an elite field of 50 is hard to argue with.

The CJ Cup was a key reason for putting up Tommy Fleetwood for last week’s Nedbank Golf Challenge as the Southport man’s share of fourth place there, a ray of sunshine in an otherwise quiet year, was a strong steer towards a successful defence, albeit three years apart.

Hard to believe such a gifted golfer had not won anywhere in between and it was a case of beware the sick golfer as Fleetwood , the 10/1 favourite, admitted a stomach upset would have ruled him out but for the sterling efforts of the Sun City medic. 

He was lucky too that chief rival Ryan Fox duffed his last tee shot and made a bit of a gift of it to the Englishman. Had Fox won, he would have overtaken McIlroy at the top of the Race To Dubai points list. As it is, the New Zealander has closed right up on the leader but there are levels and Rory is a classier act.

`If anyone deserves to finish top of the pile, however, it surely must be the tireless Kiwi who has danced every dance, played seven in a row at one stage, won twice, was eight times in the top five and ten times a top-ten finisher. Not only that, he gets on with it with a smile and at 35 this late bloomer has turned from journeyman to high-class operator.

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There’s nothing in Fox’s previous two Jumeirah visits (45th and 28th) to suggest he can topple the favourite on the vast 7675-yard, par-72 Greg Norman layout but its length (two par fives of 620 and 626 yards) won’t beat him - as a 317-yard bomber he’s right up there with Rory and Rahm.

There was nothing either in his previous Sun City visits (52-50-57) to suggest he was going to be second on Sunday. It’s just that Fox has won twice this year and confidence is sky high. Certainly not to be ruled out and he’s as strong as an ox, so he will shake off the Sun City fatigue better than the dosed-up Fleetwood who must have taken a great deal out of himself, physically and mentally.

Rahm, US Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick , BMW PGA hero Shane Lowry and Viktor Hovland are the four other obvious dangers to McIlroy, with the big Spaniard’s course form a powerful pointer. Winner on debut in 2017, again in 2019 and fourth in between, he’s 54-under for those 12 rounds and this is his first time back since. A winner in Mexico and Spain this year and close behind McIlroy at Congaree the last time we saw him, Rahm will take all the beating at 5/1 and looks an each-way bet to nothing.

Fitzpatrick’s course form as winner in 2020 and runner-up last year is compelling but at marginally bigger odds Hovland is just preferred. The smiling Norwegian has the advantage of having won in Dubai already this year and has been eye-catching in recent outings: fifth at Wentworth and at the ZOZO and tenth at Mayakoba. He handled the course well enough when third in 2020, just two behind Fitzpatrick.

Lowry was runner-up to Rahm in 2017 but I’m not sure this is his course and at the prices I would be more interested in California’s mighty atom Kitayama, who went head to head down the stretch with McIlroy at the CJ Cup in what was his third runner-up spot of the calendar year. When you consider the calibre of the men he finished second to - Rahm in Mexico, Xander Schauffele at the Scottish Open and Rory at Congaree - you appreciate his talent more. Only 5ft 7in, he has improved his short game no end - and he gives the ball an almighty lash off the tee.

Consistency is not his strong suit. If that’s what you want, Alex Noren advertised his place claims with a T4 in Houston (but a long way behind winner Tony Finau ) on Sunday, but he’s unlikely to trouble the big guns whereas Kitayama, on an “on” week, just might.

Min Woo Lee, Tyrrell Hatton and Bob MacIntyre are others who might get into the conversation but they will need to be at the top of their game, and then some.

A total outsider is not entirely ruled out - after all, Shubhankar Sharma was at 300/1 the complete outsider of 66 in Sun City last week but was co-leader with three to play - but given the strength at the top of the market, it would be a sensational upset.

This is my final column for Golf Monthly and the last 18 months have been great fun, teeing off with that 150/1 winner of the 2021 Heritage, Stewart Cink. No doubt you thought I was Superman then but those sort of dream results don’t come around too often. Still, we’ve had a steady flow of winners since (plenty of losers too!) and I hope you have enjoyed the ride. It’s been a pleasure, and if you want to stay in touch you can reach me on  [email protected] .

DP World Tour Championship betting tips 2022

• 2.5pts each-way on Jon Rahm at 5/1
• 3pts win on Rory McIlroy at 7/2
• 1pt each-way on Viktor Hovland at 11/1
• 1pt each-way on Kurt Kitayama at 33/1

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Celebrating my 52nd year tipping and writing about golf. Tipped more than 800 winners (and more than 8000 losers!). First big winner Lee Trevino at 8-1, 1972 Open at Muirfield. Biggest win £40 each-way Ernie Els at 80-1 and 50-1, 2012 Open. Most memorable: Giving the 1-2-3 at 33-1, 50-1, 33-1 out of 4 tips from a field of 180 in 2006 Pebble Beach Pro-Am. According to one bookmaker “Undoubtedly one of the greatest tipping performances of all time”. And, of course, putting up a 150/1 winner with Stewart Cink in my very first column for Golf Monthly. Lowest handicap 9 Present handicap 35.6. Publications tipped for: Sporting Life, Racing Post, Racing&Football Outlook, Golf World, Golf Weekly, Golf Monthly, Fitzdares Times. Check our Jeremy's latest tips at our Golf Betting tips home page

Jasmine Koo received a huge slice of luck at the final hole, when her ball struck the advertising board in the middle of the 18th lake

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The American has endured a tough time since his last win in June 2022, but Horschel produced a brilliant final round to claim a stunning victory

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Oddschecker's Johnny Covers takes a closer look at this week’s Genesis Scottish Open and ranks the top five golfers he thinks have the best chance of winning.

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This week the PGA Tour is in North Berwick, Scotland, for the Genesis Scottish Open. Oddschecker's Matt MacKay brings you the very best DFS Picks and Targets for the 2023 Genesis Scottish Open.

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The Genesis Scottish Open starts this Thursday. Oddschecker's Matt MacKay breaks down the odds this week and shares his best bets for the Genesis Scottish Open.

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The PGA Tour is heading to North Berwick, Scotland, for the Genesis Scottish Open. OddsChecker's golf handicapper and expert Andy Lack gives us his best picks for the 2023 Genesis Scottish Open.

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Oddschecker's Johnny Covers takes a closer look at this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic and ranks the top five golfers he thinks have the best chance of winning.

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By Matt MacKay Published 27 June 23

The Rocket Mortgage Classic starts this Thursday. Oddschecker's Matt MacKay breaks down the odds this week and shares his best bets for the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

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Last call for the ultimate Pinehurst trip

Players Championship betting guide: 8 picks our gambling expert loves

Our expert likes Xander Schauffele's chances this week.

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Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the Players Championship, which gets underway Thursday in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp,  a free-to-play mobile platform  that features a range of games with enticing prizes, giving fans all kinds of ways to engage in the action without risking any money.

It took 10 PGA Tour tournaments in 2024 season before we finally got a favorite that went on to win. Scottie Scheffler went off at roughly 7-1 before claiming the Arnold Palmer Invitational , winning convincingly by five shots last week at Bay Hill. Prior to that, Jake Knapp at around 40-1 was the shortest-priced winner of the season in his victory at the Mexico Open at Vidanta.

It is no surprise that Scheffler is again a prohibitive favorite this week, currently trading at less than 6-1 to defend his title at the Players Championship. The next choice on the odds board is Rory McIlroy, whose current price is more than double that of Scheffler.

It is the 50th anniversary edition of the Players, taking place at Pete Dye’s masterpiece, TPC Sawgrass , in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla. Sawgrass is a par 72 and measures just under 7,300 yards. The course features doglegs in both directions, no two consecutive holes that run in the same direction, and water that comes into play on nearly all 18 holes. Famously, the par-3 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass features an island green that most casual golf fans will recognize.

The Players Championship is the PGA Tour’s crown jewel and is often referred to as “the fifth major.” Most of the golf courses on the Tour schedule will allow us to pinpoint a certain type of player that should have success, or skill sets that should flourish on a particular type of layout. But Sawgrass, like most major championship venues, requires a little bit of everything and doesn’t provide many obvious answers. We have seen bombers like Jason Day and Rory McIlroy win here. We have seen shorter hitters like Webb Simpson and Si Woo Kim win too. Favorites, long shots, and everything in between, the Players has produced a wide array of champions. And — bad news for Scottie Scheffler — the tournament has never produced a winner in back-to-back seasons.

Course history doesn’t seem to mean much. Almost every champion here has also missed multiple cuts. Current form does seem to matter, however, as recent winners of the Players have had either a win or a top-5 finish during the season leading up to the event. Of the last 12 winners, Justin Thomas in 2021 was the only player to have finished worse than 22nd in their last prior start.

That being said, I looked at a little bit of everything in the stats this week but ultimately applied emphasis to current form, Strokes Gained: Approach, the short game (Scrambling and SG: Around the Green), and favored Driving Accuracy a bit over Driving Distance.

2024 Players Championship odds: Most recent major winner is our long-shot pick at TPC Sawgrass

There are a number of courses that either set up similarly, have shown crossover success, or are other Pete Dye designs that show correlation to TPC Sawgrass. Maybe the strongest two are Sedgefield, where they play the Wyndham Championship, and Harbour Town, where they hold the RBC Heritage. Others I considered in the handicap are: TPC River Highlands, TPC Potomac, Innisbrook (home of the Valspar Championship), Muirfield Village, Sea Island, and East Lake, home of the Tour Championship.

So, who is going to win the golden anniversary of the Players and pocket $4.5 million? I’ve got eight choices for an outright win and played each of them for a top-20 finish as well.

Xander Schauffele (25-1)

In six starts this season, Schauffele already has four top-10 finishes, so the current form is there despite a relatively pedestrian 25th-place finish last week at Bay Hill. He finished runner-up at TPC Sawgrass in his Players debut and took 19th last year. He has a win at TPC River Highlands, as high as a fourth-place finish at Harbour Town, four top-20 finishes at Muirfield Village and absolutely owns East Lake with a win, three runner-ups, and three additional top-10 finishes at the Tour Championship. Over the last 36 rounds, Schauffele ranks seventh in this field for SG: Approach and Bogey Avoidance, and is third on the par 4s measuring between 450-500 yards.

Max Homa (33-1)

The short game appears to be in form for Homa who, in an eighth-place finish last week in Orlando, ranked fourth in the field for Scrambling, third in SG: Putting, and 18th in SG: Around the Green. He has a win at TPC Potomac, two top-10 finishes at East Lake, a sixth at the Valspar Championship, two top-6 finishes at Muirfield Village, and has taken sixth and 13 th  here in past appearances at the Players. In addition to the impressive short game work, Homa is also 20th in this field for SG: Off the Tee and sixth in Bogey Avoidance over the last 36 rounds.

Russell Henley (40-1)

The Georgia Bulldog has always been a good putter on Bermudagrass and that showed up in his fourth place finish last week, where he was second in the field for SG: Putting. Over the last 36 rounds, Henley ranks fourth in this field on the correlated courses I used, including four top-10 finishes at Sedgefield and three top-20 finishes at TPC Sawgrass. Interestingly, we have seen Players Championship winners win four of the last eight Sony Opens in Hawaii, and that does not include Henley, who won the Sony in 2013.

Shane Lowry (42-1)

Now a Florida resident, Lowry has always played difficult golf courses well and has flourished in the Florida Swing. Just this season, he finished fourth three weeks ago at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches and followed that up with a third-place finish last week. He’s finished 13th, 16th, and eighth here in Ponte Vedra Beach and was fourth at the PGA Championship in 2021 at Kiawah Island, another Pete Dye design. He has a top-10 at Sedgefield, three top-16 finishes at Muirfield, and two third-place finishes at Harbour Town to go along with a ninth-place finish in 2021. He seems to have an affinity for Dye designs as he ranks fourth in this field for SG: Tee to Green on Pete Dye courses over the last 36 rounds.

Adam Hadwin (80-1)

I mentioned the volatility of TPC Sawgrass and the mixed results most players have at this championship. Hadwin is one of the outliers who has been somewhat consistent in finding success here. In eight prior visits, he’s only missed the cut twice. His last three trips have resulted in 13th, ninth, and 29th place finishes. His only Tour win came at the Valspar Championship and his current form looks good with two top-6 finishes in his last five starts this season.

Brendon Todd (100-1)

Todd has missed the cut here at the Players Championship twice in five tries but his best finish was last year, tying for 27th. He has a number of top-10, top-15, and top-25 finishes at the correlated courses and comes into this week off of a sixth-place finish at Bay Hill where he led the field in SG: Putting, Scrambling, and was third in SG: Around the Green. Todd ranks 22nd on Tour in Driving Accuracy.

Alex Noren (125-1)

Like Todd, Noren is another player who relies on his excellent short game, but that wasn’t the only part of his game that was firing three weeks ago in Palm Beach Gardens, where he finished ninth at the Cognizant Classic. He ranked in the top-38 in the field for Scrambling, Putting, and Around the Green but also ranked sixth for SG: Approach and Greens in Regulation. His record at TPC Sawgrass is pretty typical for a player that seems to fit the course. In six tries, he’s missed the cut three times and finished 10th, 17th, and 26th the other three times. Over the last 36 rounds, Noren is second in this field for Bogey Avoidance and 11th on the Par 4s of 450-500 yards.

Andrew Putnam (125-1)

It isn’t often I land on a player who has never made a cut at a particular tournament but that is the case here with Putnam, who is 0-for-4 in trying to make the cut at the Players. He has only missed one cut this season however, in seven starts, and twice has finished top-10 with a 10th-place finish at the Sony Open and an eighth-place finish last week at Bay Hill. The numbers make sense though. Over the last 36 rounds, Putnam is 11th in this field for SG: Putting, 36th on approach, ninth for Scrambling, fifth in Bogey Avoidance, 21st on the Par 4s of 450-500 yards, and he ranks 26th on Tour in Driving Accuracy. By Players Championship standards, he’s due to win this week! Maybe — but we’ll gladly take another top-20 finish.

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This Week's Golf Betting Tips

Golf Betting Tips - 2024 Season

Welcome to our 2024 golf betting coverage!

As ever, Steve Bamford and Paul Williams will be covering both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events from January through to November. Our previews tend to be published either late on Monday or early on Tuesday, with our full suite of stats and predictor model available from lunchtime each Monday.

Our weekly golf betting tips podcast is recorded on a Tuesday morning and is available around lunchtime alongside Steve’s weekly YouTube videos covering the week’s events, so whichever way you choose to consume your golf betting tips this week, there’s an option for you with Golf Betting System.

Listen To Our Latest Golf Betting Podcast On:

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This week and forthcoming golf betting tips schedule:

• April 1st: Valero Texas Open Tips
• April 8th: The Masters Tips
• April 15th: RBC Heritage Tips & Corales Championship Tips
• April 22nd: ISPS Handa Championship Tips

The 2024 Majors kick off as ever with The Masters in April at the iconic Augusta National. The US PGA Championship returns to Valhalla for the first time since Rory McIlroy’s win in 2014, where he held off Phil Mickelson by a stroke to win his 2nd PGA Championship title.

June sees the golfing elite head to Pinehurst, the scene of Martin Kaymer’s 8-shot demolition of the field back in 2014. The Open Championship completes the Majors for 2024, with Royal Troon the venue. The last time The Open visited Troon was in 2016, when Henrik Stenson won his first and to date only Claret Jug.

• April 6th-9th: The Masters Tips , Augusta National
• May 18th-21st: US PGA Championship Tips , Oak Hill CC
• June 15th-18th: US Open Tips , Los Angeles CC
• July 20th-23rd: The Open Tips , Hoylake

In the lead up to each of the Majors, we’ll have full pre-event previews and podcasts covering each of the courses in more detail, before our regular suite of golf betting tips and stats which will be available in the week of the event itself. Watch this space!

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For our view of the latest and best golf free bets, plus a summary of the reasons why some bookmakers are better for golf betting than others, read our free bets golf page.

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Golf Betting Tips

Welcome to Golf Betting System, the United Kingdom’s number 1 independent website for free golf betting tips and a supporting suite of golf betting resources. Driven by founders Steve Bamford and Paul Williams, Golf Betting System provides weekly golf betting tips across the Major Championships, PGA Tour and DP World Tour. We specialise solely in golf betting, providing all of our content for free with the goal of giving you with the very best tournament, course, player, statistical data and bookmaker information to help you with your golf selections for upcoming events.

Golf Betting System was established in 2009 with the aim of promoting profitable golf betting. Developed over the course of 2007 and 2008, we launched with a unique golf betting predictor, an evolved version of which we still feature today. Using a mix of both the predictor output, golf course, player statistics, and insight gained from watching golf tournaments, 2009 saw the first year that Golf Betting System covered both the PGA and DP World Tours each week with free published predictor models and golf betting tips.

DP World/PGA Tour Golf Tipsters

Steve Bamford has covered the PGA Tour with his golf betting previews and tips since 2009. Covering over 40 tournaments per season, Steve’s betting previews provide a detailed analysis of every event. Constituents include a detailed appraisal of the course, course designer links, and what specific player skill-sets are required to win. Previous tournament champions, their winning totals, and historical odds are all included. Steve also details previous tournament weather conditions, a weather forecast, what the likely course conditions will be and how that will affect the likely winning score. Bookmaker of the Week is an important angle for punters, highlighting the very best each-way value offered for each tournament, with Steve presenting his reasoned PGA Tour tips for the tournament. Current and Historical P&Ls are available here .

Paul Williams has covered the DP World Tour (formerly the European Tour) with his golf betting tips and previews since 2009 – current and Historical P&Ls are available here . Paul’s knowledge of the DP World Tour courses, tournaments and players is exceptional. That’s no easy task with the DP World Tour featuring a host of new graduates each season and a diverse range of new courses and venues. Paul’s DP World Tour tips articles provide an in-depth analysis of every event. Constituents include a detailed appraisal of the course, what specific player skill-sets are required to win, previous tournament champions, their winning totals, historical odds and analysis, likely course conditions and winning total. Paul also takes time to peruse the betting markets to highlight which bookmaker is offering the very best value for every tournament.

As ever, if you have any feedback then please contact us through the normal channels, any thoughts and comments are very much appreciated.

Listen To Our Golf Betting Tips Podcast

The increasingly popular Golf Betting System Podcast is available pretty much every week from January to November. Hosted by Steve Bamford with DP World Tour expert Paul Williams and podcast pundit Barry O’Hanrahan, the lads discuss each tournament in detail including course descriptions, tournament trends, course conditions, likely weather and their own opinions on players to back.

The podcast has been a hugely popular addition to the Golf Betting System content portfolio, with thousands downloading each and every week across a multitude of podcast platforms, including iTunes, Spotify, YouTube, Stitcher and Podbean.

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Established in 2009, Golf Betting System has always welcomed feedback, input and knowledge from its readers, listeners and watchers. As early as 2010, we launched our Golf Betting Forum on Facebook. It’s a moderated Closed Group, where you can have your say, voice your golf betting tips, or pass on advice to fellow members.

As far as golf betting knowledge and experience is concerned, it’s a forum that’s hard to beat and it’s undoubtedly the busiest golf betting forum on the internet. The group is also the place to enter our regular competitions throughout the season and, if you’re a fan of Fantasy Golf in its various different guises, we run season-long Golf Betting System leagues with cash prizes up for grabs. We always welcome individuals interested in golf betting, so don’t hesitate to get involved – you can join here .

Golf Form Guide

For golf betting form stats and history, our tournament statistics pages are a popular starting point for punters each week. For a regular tournament on the PGA and DP World Tour, 4 standard form guides are produced each week:

• Current Form Stats : the field ranked by a player’s average finish over the last 12 events chronologically.
• First Round Leader Stats : the field ranked by a player’s average first round score at the event, combined with their first round finishing positions from the last 20 events.
• Event Stats : the field ranked by a player’s average score at this event, back to 2002. On occasion this stat is adapted as a course history stat instead if that’s more appropriate.
• Combined Stats : a combined view of both current form and event stats for the field.

In addition, where there are at least 2 years worth of stats available on the course being played, we also publish Strokes Gained summaries for both Tours as part of our golf betting guide.

Our golf form guides are published each Monday and updated with odds and tee times as the week progresses. You can access these using the tournament boxes at the top of the homepage and also via our golf stats section .

Historical stats from 2020 onwards also have the final finishing position of each player added, so if you like to try to decipher trends by looking at the top performers of an event historically and how their current/course form looked ahead of the tournament, then you’ll love this feature! 2020 Tournaments – 2021 Tournaments – 2022 Tournaments .

Golf Betting Tips And Stats

Golf betting predictor.

Since our launch in 2009, Golf Betting System has always featured free-to-use PGA Tour and DP World Tour golf betting predictor models.

Subscription-free, you can use our predictor models as much as you like and as many of your own tailor-made reports as you like free of charge. Steve and Paul also publish a predictor model for each tournament based upon our own research findings. Our predictor models are a fantastic tool to take golf fields of up to 200+ players and use individual player data to produce target lists of players for each tournament.

Variables include player form, course top 10s, tournament average scores and OWGR. The predictors also include player skill-sets including Driving Accuracy, Greens in Regulation, Putting Average, Putts per Round and Scrambling. Scoring-wise, look for Eagle Performance, Birdie Performance, Bogey Avoidance and tellingly Par 3, 4, and 5 Performance.

Our PGA Tour predictor also includes extra variables for results by Green Grass, Course Conditions, Windy conditions, Course Designer and by region within the United States.

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GBS is undergoing a facelift, please bear with us while we make these changes!

We’ll be detailing the latest bookmaker’s deals here as we build up the site, in the meantime you can get the most recent offers by visiting newcustomeroffer.co.uk  or for the latest promo codes for golf read our golf promo codes page. There you’ll find a number of offers including the latest Boylesports sign up offer , and the latest Betfred promo code 2024 .

Betting on this year’s Grand National? Find out which bookmaker have a Grand National 6 places each way offer: 6placeseachway.co.uk

Golf betting tips: Preview and best bets for the DP World Tour Championship

After a 66/1 winner last week, Ben Coley hopes Bernd Wiesberger can cap an excellent year with victory in the DP World Tour Championship.

Golf betting tips: DP World Tour Championship

2.5pts e.w. Tommy Fleetwood at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

2pts e.w. Bernd Wiesberger at 25/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Victor Perez at 66/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Robert MacIntyre at 66/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Sean Crocker at 66/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Whichever way you dress it, Jon Rahm's withdrawal from the DP World Tour Championship robs the event of a player who really ought to be there. That isn't to criticise the Spaniard, still no doubt adjusting to fatherhood at the end of a whirlwind year which saw him become a major winner, and then prove unable to carry his side to victory in the Ryder Cup. Week after week he's been involved in the story of 2021 in men's golf.

But Rahm is Europe's best player, and he's passed up the opportunity to win the Race to Dubai for a second time. He is a student of the sport's history, a brilliant ambassador for golf in Spain, and has spoken of his desire to emulate Seve Ballesteros in whichever ways he can. If the European Tour cannot attract him to an event which would've allowed him to close in on his idol, who won the money list three times, there's a problem.

Viktor Hovland is also out. Officially Europe's third-best player, unofficially its next big hope in terms of winning major championships, the Norwegian was willing to fly in from Georgia to take part in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, but not to come to the Middle East. Like Justin Rose, who has chosen the RSM Classic over this, Hovland will play the invitation-only Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas two weeks from now.

👏 @BenColeyGolf does it again! 🥳 A 66/1 winner for Sporting Life readers as Joachim B. Hansen wins the AVIV Dubai Championship! https://t.co/jdMQO0ATE8 — Sporting Life (@SportingLife) November 14, 2021

What should be a world-class tournament is instead a slightly underwhelming hodgepodge, featuring two Americans who lead the Race to Dubai standings, affiliate member Will Zalatoris who gets in via some kind of loophole, and rogue duo Patrick Reed and Sergio Garcia, who have been granted exemptions to play, but can't collect Race to Dubai points in what is the Race to Dubai finale.

The main prize will as a result likely go to either Collin Morikawa or Billy Horschel, first and second in the standings. Whoever does triumph will be the first American to win what was the Order of Merit, and it's advantage Morikawa. In straightforward terms he has a nice cushion and is the superior player. He also has a course experience edge over Horschel, and at 15/2 could well seal it in style by winning both the DP World Tour Championship and the Race to Dubai.

Morikawa cedes favouritism to Rory McIlroy, however, and on these terms that makes perfect sense. McIlroy is a two-time winner at the Earth Course, where he's clear in scoring average by fully two strokes per tournament. Ten times McIlroy has played here, and just four of his 40 rounds have been over-par. He's as comfortable in the desert as anywhere, a point he underlined by winning the CJ Cup last time out, and seems very likely to contend.

At 7/1, he'd have made the staking plan, but at 6/1 he doesn't. Not quite. Those who are interested in backing him should look for prices on a wire-to-wire win, which should be in the region of 33/1, or consider using him as a pivot in dual-forecast markets. These wouldn't typically tempt me, but so likely is McIlroy to be thereabouts that boosting the odds on the pick of the alternatives really does make some appeal.

It's showtime 🙌 #DPWTC | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/GUKiQzjSgC — The European Tour (@EuropeanTour) November 15, 2021

Fleetwood ready to go on the attack

To my mind those alternatives are TOMMY FLEETWOOD and BERND WIESBERGER , who above all else look solid each-way plays against the two world-class players at the head of the betting.

• CLICK HERE to back Fleetwood with Sky Bet

Fleetwood hasn't had the best of years by his own admission, largely because he's not been as reliable with driver in hand as had been the case previously. At Bay Hill in the spring he finished 10th while ranking 68th off the tee, giving winner Bryson DeChambeau fully 10 shots in that department and losing by seven.

When any player's main strength becomes a weakness alarm bells start to ring, but things have been looking up lately. Fleetwood drove it particularly well when seventh in the Dunhill Links, followed that up promisingly in two PGA Tour events, and was good again last week when finishing 13th in the AVIV Dubai Championship.

His iron play has also improved, these two departments generally linked where Fleetwood is concerned. His two best approach play performances of 2021 have come across his last three measured starts, and while there's no data for the ZOZO Championship, in securing his best PGA Tour finish of the year we can assume his long-game was good.

Hopefully some good info in this Tee Time Tip video with the @TAGHeuer team and Sky Golf’s very own Oprah, @NickDougherty5 . It should come as no surprise to anyone that my #TAGHeuerConnected worked perfectly and Nick will never caddie for me again!!! pic.twitter.com/I2BuOyBKg6 — Tommy Fleetwood (@TommyFleetwood1) November 3, 2021

Suddenly there's a robustness to Fleetwood's form that had been absent, and with European Tour results of 2-12-7-13 since the last PGA Tour season ended, he's doing what he so often does and delivering on a consistent basis where we know he's comfortable.

Last week's effort in a shootout can be upgraded, because he's far better suited to a more penal course. He showed as much when winning the Abu Dhabi Championship twice, as well as in Paris and South Africa when 12-under did the job. We might be looking at four or five lower here, but it's a significant upgrade in terms of challenging players of this calibre, and that's a positive.

Fleetwood's record here is strong, having contended to some degree in each of the last four renewals. Back in 2017 he fired two 65s to enter Sunday in fourth, a year later he was eight-under at halfway to lie sixth, and in 2019 he spent the week inside the top five. Last year, a third-round 74 saw him fall from fifth to 18th before he rallied to take 10th.

With those two Abu Dhabi wins correlating nicely, he's definitely the right type to go on and win an event which has been dominated by the best players in Europe. The fact that this time he holds no chance of winning the Race to Dubai may work in his favour, and a frustrating year could well turn just as it did for Matt Fitzpatrick last December.

Bernd notice

In contrast, Wiesberger has played the best golf of his life this year, in my estimation. Certainly, from tee-to-green he's been world-class, leading the European Tour by a comfortable margin — the gap between Wiesberger and second-placed Thomas Pieters is significantly wider than any other two players in the rankings bar those at the bottom, Jake McLeod and Andrea Pavan.

• CLICK HERE to back Wiesberger with Sky Bet

This long-game quality, which also sees him lead in strokes-gained approach, powered Wiesberger to a second win in Denmark, and ought to have seen him double up in Switzerland. Despite that blow he went on to make the Ryder Cup side and was far from the weakest link as Europe suffered a mighty thrashing.

Undoubtedly spurred on by that experience, he's finished 12th, 11th and second in three subsequent starts, despite putting poorly throughout all of them. Yes, he might've been flattered a little last week, the leaders clearly stalling under pressure, but Wiesberger was again exceptional in all departments bar putting.

He'll have to improve with the flat stick to win this better event, but a general toughening of conditions will help. He has a round of 65 here to his name, on the way to fourth place in 2016, and is at the top of his game right now. That was not the case last year and, like Fleetwood, there's no Race to Dubai pressure. Wiesberger has every chance.

The last nine renewals of this event have been shared by four players, three of them major champions and the other, Fitzpatrick, prolific. This weakened renewal may open things up more, and maiden Laurie Canter held every chance coming down the stretch in 2020, but if anything the market probably underestimates those towards the top of it in general terms.

For that reason, Tyrrell Hatton was also tempting. A proven desert performer who has also won in Abu Dhabi, Hatton's form has been hit-and-miss but he played nicely in Houston last Friday after a poor start. He can win the Race to Dubai but this prolific winner is unlikely to be shackled by that and has gone close here previously.

Canter though is the last name of the list. I was hoping his Portugal Masters missed cut might see some 66 or even 80/1 thrown up, and most of his standout performances over the last 18 months have followed a poor one. One of the best drivers in the field and arguably the best maiden on the circuit, he can go well but looks about the right sort of price at 50/1.

Can Perez put the pieces together?

Instead, I'll side with the proven, winning form of VICTOR PEREZ , who has dropped two big hints across the last fortnight.

• CLICK HERE to back Perez with Sky Bet

Perez putted the lights out for eighth place in Portugal, then again closed with a round of 65 over on the Fire Course last week. Crucially, this time his long-game was the driving force as the Frenchman ranked first in driving accuracy, fourth in greens, 12th off the tee and 21st in approaches.

That's the game which for so long seemed likely to earn him a Ryder Cup debut and it's perhaps not a big surprise that, having been under such pressure for an extended period of time, he's now playing with greater freedom and getting back to where he ought to be.

Let’s get it this weekend 💣 #AvivDubaiChampionship pic.twitter.com/BkLXVel9A4 — Victor Perez (@v_perez2) November 12, 2021

Perez made just three bogeys in the AVIV Championship and this tougher test will absolutely suit, having been 20th and seventh here in two tries. Again, both of them were vital in terms of the Ryder Cup and perhaps that's why after shooting 67 to lead after the first round a year ago he struggled on Friday, before putting the pieces back in place over the weekend to finish seventh.

Perez has driven the ball really well on both starts, he's also contended for the Dubai Desert Classic and the Abu Dhabi Championship, and he's won a comparably lucrative tournament previously. If he can marry the ball-striking of last week with something like the putting we saw in Portugal, he can go really well.

It's no surprise to see Monday money for Nicolai Hojgaard, runner-up last time and rapidly on the ascent now. He's tempting given this wave of Danish winners, a point JB Hansen alluded to on Sunday, but his lack of desert experience is a slight worry and perhaps he needs another year before taking something of this stature.

Bob worth another chance

Thomas Detry earned a second glance purely because he's more than doubled in price after a solitary bad round last Friday, but despite having failed to get him right so far, I want to give ROBERT MACINTYRE another chance.

• CLICK HERE to back MacIntyre with Sky Bet

We were on MacIntyre in this last year, odds of 25/1 reflecting better form and a weaker field. He was one of several who entered Sunday in the mix after a brilliant third-round 66, only to plummet from a shot behind to finish 23rd with a shocking and expensive 77.

That disappointment aside, the Scot did confirm that the Fire Course is a really good fit. He'd suggested as much in his rookie season with rounds of 68 and 69 over the weekend which were enough to earn him Rookie of the Year honours. That he started poorly can be put down to the fact he was paired with rival Kurt Kitayama and admitted he couldn't focus on his own game.

Four excellent rounds here plus finishes of eighth and third in the Dubai Desert Classic suggest MacIntyre has the makings of a desert specialist, and after a hopeless weekend in Portugal, where he putted abysmally, it was encouraging to see him improve through the bag in the AVIV Championship.

There's work to be done with his approaches but ranking third off the tee represented a big step back in the right direction. It was driver which powered his excellent finish to 2020 plus the form he showed in the desert at the start of this year, and his performance last week was his best since that third place behind Paul Casey in January.

If his approach work slots into place, MacIntyre could go really well at a course he really likes, and at 66/1 that's a chance I'll take.

USA all the way

Around the same place in the market, Martin Kaymer showed good signs last week. He'd have been right up there with Fitzpatrick but for the ninth and 10th holes here last year, which he played in nine-over only to lose by eight, and is another with that correlating form over in Abu Dhabi on a course which asks similar questions.

But while it remains unclear if and when his first victory since the 2014 US Open will come, it's obvious that SEAN CROCKER is capable of winning just about anything if he has a decent week with the putter.

• CLICK HERE to back Crocker with Sky Bet

The American is an enormous talent whose ball-striking has powered five top-10 finishes this year, including when eighth last week. He ranked fifth off the tee and 10th with his approaches, but a shootout was always likely to leave him with too much to do as he again struggled on the greens.

Guilty pleasure 👀 First golfing memory ⛳ Most used emoji 😀 Get to know Sean Crocker in 60 seconds. pic.twitter.com/ljXuiIvStK — The European Tour (@EuropeanTour) December 23, 2020

That said, Crocker putted better than average on his previous two starts and has been much more solid of late, so we can cling to hope that he makes his share. Certainly, he has more wriggle room here, and the fact he finished 14th when statistically the worst putter in the field last December shows the damage he's capable of doing.

One year on, he's right up there with Wiesberger when it comes to strokes-gained ball-striking and his record here at Jumeriah Golf Estates reads a progressive 22-14-8. Breaking through in an event like this is difficult, but Crocker's long-game is good enough to take him far beyond the levels he's achieved so far and, in a small field, he looks worth the risk.

It's likely this tournament ends with an American flag at the top of the Race to Dubai. Perhaps Crocker can upstage Morikawa and Horschel in the event itself.

Posted at 1710 GMT on 15/11/21

Click here for Ben Coley's tipping record

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DP World Tour Championship predictions: Golf betting tips and odds

DP World Tour Championship predictions:

• Rory McIlroy to record top-five finish – 1/1 bet365
• Matthew Fitzpatrick to win DP World Tour Championship - 14/1 Unibet  
• Adrian Meronk to be first-round leader – 33/1 BetMGM

The leading players in the DP World Tour converge on Dubai this week for the final event of the 2023 season, the DP World Tour Championship. 

Defending champion Jon Rahm will be pressing his case to win a second title in a row at Jumeirah Golf Estates, although there is plenty of competition including Rory McIlroy, who is the favourite with UK bookmakers to take the crown. 

It will be the first time McIlroy has competed since playing a significant role in Europe’s triumph over the USA in the Ryder Cup.

Teammates Shane Lowry, Tyrell Hatton, Sepp Straka and Viktor Hovland have also been out of action since the victory at the Marco Simone Golf Club. 

But, Rahm, Robert MacIntyre, Tommy Fleetwood, Nicolai Hojgaard and Matthew Fitzpatrick have all been back on the course and look in good touch to cap their year on an even higher note. 

Ryan Fox, Min Woo Lee and Joohyung Kim are among the top contenders from outside of the European team for the title with new betting sites after impressing with their performances on the DP World Tour this term. 

Here are our predictions for the final tournament of the season on the DP World Tour.

Watch out for McIlroy 

McIlroy will end the season as the Race to Dubai winner, topping the standings on the DP World Tour for the fifth time in his career.  

Max Homa’s victory at the Nedbank Golf Challenge last week meant that Rahm could no longer catch his European teammate even with a victory in the DP World Tour Championship, presenting McIlroy with the award.  

But, McIlroy will not be satisfied with the seasonal prize, and he will want to cap his fine year with another victory on the DP World Tour. McIlroy notched two victories on the tour this season, triumphing at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic and Scottish Open.  

He also came extremely close to ending his nine-year major drought, finishing second at the US Open alongside top 10 finishes at the PGA Championship and The Open.

McIlroy carried his form into the Ryder Cup, where he was dominant. The Northern Irishman won four of his five matches, only losing a point on the final hole of his four balls alongside Fitzpatrick. 

The 34-year-old is a two-time winner of the DP World Tour Championship, although the last of his crowns came in 2015. 

He has finished in the top 10 on four occasions since, including a fourth-place finish last season when he was four strokes off the pace of Rahm. 

With our first DP World Tour Championship prediction, we’re backing McIlroy to record a top-five finish at 1/1 with bet365 . 

DP World Tour Championship Tip 1: Rory McIlroy to record top-five finish – 1/1 bet365  

Fitzpatrick eyes another DP World Tour Championship win 

Although Europe won the Ryder Cup, Fitzpatrick endured a tough time at the tournament outside of his brilliance on the first day. 

He was outstanding in the four balls alongside McIlroy on day one, reeling off eight birdies and an eagle between them to defeat Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele. 

But, Fitzpatrick then failed to win another point for his team, and missed the chance to wrap up the Ryder Cup with a miss on the 18th hole in his singles match against Homa.  

He responded well to his underwhelming display in Italy by winning his first DP World Tour event in two years with a fine performance at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

Fitzpatrick was a model of consistency in a weather-affected tournament, finishing three strokes ahead of his nearest challenger Fox. 

The 29-year-old now has momentum to take into Dubai, where he is two-time winner, the last of which came in 2020.  

Since winning the second of his DP World Tour Championships, Fitzpatrick has been in the running for further triumphs in the tournament. 

He finished second behind Morikawa in 2021 and fifth last season, highlighting his impressive record at Jumeirah Golf Estates.  

The Yorkshireman can cap a good end to the year with a third win in the competition. With our second DP World Tour Championship prediction, we’re backing Fitzpatrick to claim a third crown at 14/1 with Unibet . 

DP World Tour Championship Tip 2: Matthew Fitzpatrick to win DP World Tour Championship - 14/1 Unibet

Meronk to make fast start 

Adrian Meronk was the unfortunate man to miss out on a place at the Ryder Cup. 

Despite his impressive form on the DP World Tour, where he sits sixth in the standings ahead of the final event of the season, Luke Donald overlooked the Pole in favour of Ludvig Aberg with his captain’s pick. 

Meronk was furious with the decision, having triumphed at the Marco Simone in June in the Italian Open as well as another victory on the DP World Tour at the Australian Open earlier in the campaign. 

In the events since the Ryder Cup, he has been up and down, finishing off the pace at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, despite making a strong start. 

He bounced back with a brilliant win in the Andalucia Masters before putting a solid week’s work in at the Nedbank Golf Challenge to finish in the top 20. 

In the first high-profile event since the Ryder Cup, Meronk will be out to make a point and has carded under-par rounds in six out of his last seven tournaments.

So, with our final DP World Tour Championship prediction, we’re backing him to be the first-round leader at odds of 33/1 with BetMGM . 

DP World Tour Championship Tip 3: Adrian Meronk to be first-round leader – 33/1 BetMGM

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Simon Sinclair is an experienced sports journalist, who has written for national publications for football, cricket, NFL and many more. He contributes tips on a wide range of sports for The Independent.

Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM

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DP World Tour Championship 2023 Tips: Fitzy the man in Dubai

 | November 13 | 

17 mins read

Rory McIlroy may have already won the Race to Dubai title but there is still the little matter of the season-ending DP World Tour Championship to decide. Our man Jamie Worsley is back with his long-read preview and four selections to prevail in the desert. 

DP World Tour Championship Tips

3 pts Matt Fitzpatrick each way (1/5 – 6 places) – 12/1  

1.75 pts Ryan Fox each way (1/5 – 6 places) – 30/1  

1 pt Lucas Herbert each way (1/5 – 6 places) – 50/1 

1 pt Matt Wallace each way (1/5 – 6 places) – 60/1

As Max Homa picked up his first international success with an emphatic four-stroke win at the Nedbank Challenge yesterday, the result of that event had more significant ramifications for our final event of the 2022/23 DP World Tour season this week in Dubai, and indeed the culmination of the Race to Dubai.

With Adrian Meronk and Ryan Fox unable to make a sizable mark at Gary Player Country Club, it leaves Rory McIlroy with an unassailable lead atop the R2D and means somewhat of an anti-climax to the end of the season.

Having said that, Rory is obviously a very deserving winner, having won two of the strongest events on the calendar this year, claiming his third Dubai Desert Classic at the start of 2023 and producing that sublime finish to take the Scottish Open back in July. Add in the fact that he’s hit the top 10 in three majors and these rankings – which are/were supposed to reward season-long excellence – are going to a player who has represented just that.

No matter what happens this week, he will collect his fifth Harry Vardon Trophy, putting him solo 3 rd on the all-time list behind Colin Montgomerie (8) and Seve Ballesteros (6).

We do still have the matter of what should be a fantastic golf tournament to finish off the season, as the stars arrive for the DP World Tour Championship at Jumeirah Estates - Earth Course.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The DP World Tour Championship debuted in 2009 (as the Dubai World Championship), replacing the Volvo Masters as the season-ending event on the DP World Tour.

That first edition was won by Lee Westwood with a score of -23 and his six-stroke victory there is the record winning margin in the event, a feat he shares with 2013 winner, Henrik Stenson, who shot a record -25 winning score.

The Swede became both the first person to win this event twice and first player to retain the title when winning in 2014. Two more players have won the event twice: Rory McIlroy (2012, 2015) and Matt Fitzpatrick (2016, 2020), though they all trail Jon Rahm, who recorded his third victory in the event last year, after previously winning the 2017 and 2019 renewals. He returns looking for title #4 this week.

The pristine Jumeirah Estates - Earth Course was completed in 2008 and is designed by Greg Norman. It has hosted every renewal of the DP World Tour Championship since 2009 and boasts an average winning score of -19 over the fourteen editions to date.

The Earth Course is a par 72 and will this week play to 7675 yards. It contains ten par 4s ( 371-499 yards ), four par 5s ( 572-626 yards ) and four par 3s ( 186-245 yards ).

This is your typical, open Middle-Eastern desert track. The landing areas in the rolling fairways are generally wide, though they do tighten the further you go and are protected by deviously strategic bunkering, which frame the holes and with most large and deep, represents the primary defence of the course. With the rough not too difficult to play out of and the tree-smattered waste areas which border most holes only in-play for the most wayward.

Elevation changes into the huge, undulating and varied greens are frequent. Greens which are often fronted by those penalizing bunkers and have added protection in the way of often-steep run-off areas around the majority.

Whilst the putting surfaces are easy to hit, possessing the 8 th -highest GIR numbers on the DPWT , they are tough to putt on and very difficult to scramble around, ranking inside the top 10 in both scrambling and putting difficulty on tour. It’s into and on/around these greens where the tournament is usually won and lost.

Water is in-play on five holes but only really comes into play over the back nine. It makes up one of the most exciting finishes on the DPWT, with the 16 th , 17 th and 18 th all occupied by water hazards.

The 16 th is the final par 4 and a lengthy 486 yards . Water sits to the far right of the wide fairway, which has two bunkers in the landing area for protection. Avoiding these hazards is not even half of your job done, with the shallow green protected by bunkers short and long, and water directly to the right.

Get out of there with a par and you are then tasked with the 195-yard par 3 17 th – a hole surrounded by water on all sides. It has one of the smallest and most quirkily-shaped greens on the course, with certain pin placements hard to find and four bunkers for protection if the water danger alone wasn’t enough.

The famous final hole is a 620-yard risk/reward par 5 . A creak dominates the hole, protecting the fairway to the right and the narrow, sloping green to the left. Players often bail out off-the-tee into the bunkers left and hit layups into the rough on the right to avoid the water. Two quality shots will be needed to reach the green in two but disaster lurks for anyone who is slightly off when taking an aggressive line with driver or in approach. It is a fabulously dramatic finish to the event.

• SG: Approach
• Greens-in-Regulation
• SG: Putting
• SG: Off-the-Tee

You’ll likely need a little bit of everything to be successful at Jumeirah Estates this week but I want to lean particularly on the strongest iron players and putters, which would’ve proven a fruitful tactic in recent renewals. This is no surprise into tough green complexes, where precise approach play is needed to access the pins and when you inevitably don’t hit the correct spot, you’re going to need to rely on the flatstick.

Jon Rahm was at his best in both of these areas when winning last year, ranking 2 nd in approach and 2 nd in putting. Runner-up, Alex Noren was 2 nd on the greens, 3 rd in GIR and 7 th in approach, whilst Tyrrell Hatton (also 2 nd ) ranked 5 th in approach and 6 th in putting.

Collin Morikawa produced a solid all-round display to win in 2021, though his closest challengers in 2 nd , Alexander Bjork and Matt Fitzpatrick, ranked 1 st and 2 nd with the putter respectively.

Fitzpatrick putted well when winning the previous year, ranking 1 st on the greens, followed home by the 4 th , 6 th and 7 th -best approach players for the week; 2019 and 2018 winners, Jon Rahm and Danny Willett, both excelled in approach; Rahm ranking 4 th and Willett ranking 2 nd .

Though the fairways are wide, the bunkers do make this a relatively challenging driving course and few have been able to contend without at least driving the ball solidly. Of the last five winners, Rahm in 2019 ranked 4 th off-the-tee; Collin Morikawa and Matt Fitzpatrick ranked 8 th .

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Events around the Middle East are a good place to start here with the style of golf pretty similar right across the region. There are three that stand out – all in the UAE – most in relation to this week’s challenge, whilst back in Europe there are a couple of events I’m relying on to give us further clues for this week’s tournament.

Abu Dhabi Championship (Abu Dhabi Golf Club)

First up is the Abu Dhabi Championship. Whilst current host, Yas Links should work too, it’s the previous host, Abu Dhabi Golf Club – which hosted the event up to and including 2021 – that appeals most.

Much like the Earth Course, it is your typically well-manicured, generous desert course; possessing similar birdie/bogey averages and has large greens which are easy to hit.

Notable Correlating Form:

Lee Westwood:

DPWTC (1 st ) / Abu Dhabi (1 st )

Tyrrell Hatton:

DPWTC (2 nd , 2 nd ) / Abu Dhabi (1 st )

Tommy Fleetwood:

DPWTC (2 nd , 5 th ) / Abu Dhabi (1 st , 1 st , 2 nd )

Matt Fitzpatrick:

DPWTC (1 st, 1 st , 2 nd ) / Abu Dhabi (2 nd , 3 rd )

Shane Lowry:

DPWTC (2 nd , 5 th ) / Abu Dhabi (1 st , 4 th )

DPWTC (6 th , 7 th ) / Abu Dhabi (2 nd , 9 th )

Kiradech Aphibarnrat:

DPWTC (2 nd , 9 th ) / Abu Dhabi (4 th )

Dean Burmester:

DPWTC (4 th , 4 th , 6 th ) / Abu Dhabi (7 th )

Victor Perez:

DPWTC (7 th ) / Abu Dhabi (2 nd )

Dubai Desert Classic (Emirates Golf Club)

Emirates Golf Club is a more penal ball-striking test but it’s a course where those who are strongest with the long game have usually thrived. Which has produced many telling form-ties.

Rory McIlroy:

DPWTC (1 st , 1 st ) / DDC (1 st ,1 st , 1 st )

Danny Willett:

DPWTC (1 st , 4 th , 5 th ) / DDC (1 st )

Alvaro Quiros:

DPWTC (1 st ) / DDC (1 st )

DPWTC (2 nd , 2 nd ) / DDC (3 rd , 3 rd , 4 th )

Adri Arnaus:

DPWTC (9 th , 9 th , 10 th ) / DDC (3 rd , 9 th )

Andy Sullivan:

DPWTC (2 nd , 10 th ) / DDC (2 nd , 4 th , 6 th )

DPWTC (4 th , 4 th , 6 th ) / DDC (3 rd )

DPWTC (6 th , 7 th ) / DDC (3 rd )

Dubai Championship (Jumeirah Estates - Fire Course)

There were only two editions of the Dubai Championship staged in 2020 and 2021, acting as a stand-in during the pandemic. Taking place at the same golf complex as this week and also designed by Greg Norman, the Fire Course is a touch more linksy in feel but is big, open and full of scoring opportunities.

DPWTC (9 th ) / Dubai Championship (1 st )

DPWTC (2 nd , 10 th ) / Dubai Championship (2 nd , 4 th )

Matt Wallace:

DPWTC (2 nd ) / Dubai Championship (2 nd )

Mike Lorenzo-Vera:

DPWTC (3 rd ) / Dubai Championship (2 nd )

Adrian Meronk:

DPWTC (7 th ) / Dubai Championship (8 th )

Portugal Masters (Dom Pedro - Victoria Course)

Over to Europe and the Dom Pedro Victoria Course looks a great comp this week. This open resort course has many form-ties with the Earth Course with golfers experiencing similarities into and on the large, undulating putting surfaces.

DPWTC (1 st ) / Portugal (1 st )

DPWTC (2 nd , 5 th ) / Portugal (1 st , 6 th )

DPWTC (2 nd , 10 th ) / Portugal (1 st , 2 nd )

DPWTC (6 th , 7 th ) / Portugal (1 st , 1 st )

Jorge Campillo:

DPWTC (9 th , 9 th ) / Portugal (6 th , 8 th )

Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship possesses similar averages to this week’s event in GIR, scrambling and putting. With this, several compelling form-ties have developed.

DPWTC (1 st , 1 st , 2 nd ) / Dunhill Links (1 st )

DPWTC (1 st , 4 th , 5 th ) / Dunhill Links (1 st , 2 nd )

DPWTC (2 nd , 2 nd ) / Dunhill Links (1 st , 1 st , 2 nd )

DPWTC (2 nd , 5 th ) / Dunhill Links (2 nd , 2 nd )

DPWTC (2 nd, 5 th ) / Dunhill Links (3 rd , 4 th , 6 th )

DPWTC (6 th , 7 th ) / Dunhill Links (3 rd , 5 th )

DPWTC (2 nd , 9 th ) / Dunhill Links (4 th )

THE WEATHER

Conditions are warm and dry before the start of the event, though there is scheduled to be some afternoon showers during Thursday’s first round, along with gusty winds that could blow at close to 30mph. That is forecast to disappear from Friday, though the winds may return for Sunday’s final round.

This year’s Race to Dubai winner, Rory McIlroy, is the top-ranked player in the field at #2 in the world and is one of seven from inside the top 15, along with: #3 Jon Rahm, #4 Viktor Hovland, #8 Matt Fitzpatrick, #11 Tom Kim, #12 Tyrrell Hatton and #15 Tommy Fleetwood.

Tom Kim is one of thirteen debutants in attendance, joined by several first-time winners on the DPWT this season, including Open de France winner, Ryo Hisatsune and British Masters champion, Daniel Hillier.

Ryder Cup stars, Shane Lowry and Sepp Straka return to action after being absent since the that exhilarating win for Team Europe in Italy.

The top 50 of the Race to Dubai are all eligible and teeing it up this week. Daniel Brown was the last man in, just about hanging on to his spot, dropping five spots to 50 th after last week. Two players moved inside the top 50 after last week: Matt Wallace and Jens Dantorp; Marcus Helligkilde and Ockie Strydom were the unfortunate duo to drop out.

The top of the betting is very strong, with Rory McIlroy as our 4/1 favourite this week. He is followed by Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland at 5/1 .

Winners of this event are always of the highest order, with each of the last eleven DP World Tour Championship victors a then or future major winner . Whilst that leading trio are of course hugely respected, the prices make very little appeal to me. However, there is one player who looks the clear value at the top end of the betting, just outside the top three: two-time winner of this event Matt Fitzpatrick, and he goes in as my main selection in Dubai.

Following on from last year’s US Open major success, Fitzpatrick has continued to make noise in the golfing world this year. He initially struggled for form at the beginning of 2023, with the long game looking an issue. Though after a first full-field top 10 of the year coming back in April at The Masters, where the ball-striking had started to pick up, he recorded his second victory in the U.S and first in a regular PGA Tour event by claiming the RBC Heritage, in a playoff over Jordan Spieth.

The form of the Sheffield man was a little in-and-out following that success but he rediscovered it again in the FedExCup Playoffs, finishing second in the BMW Championship and then came 9 th in the season-ending Tour Championship.

Fitzpatrick maintained his form when heading back over to Europe for the Ryder Cup, finishing 3 rd in the European Masters and 18 th at Wentworth, before earning his second win of the year in the weather-shortened Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on his last stroke-play start, a little over a month ago.

He has been good in all areas this year but it’s with that trusty putter that he has done the most damage, ranking 11 th on the PGA Tour, something he often puts to good use in this event. Whilst not as strong as last year, the ball-striking has been solid, with the driver looking particularly good over the last three months, ranking 32 nd for this period.

Fitzpatrick’s record here is superb, with two wins, a 2 nd and he finished 5 th last year. He has gained strokes on these greens every year since at least 2017 and his win in the Dunhill Links last-time-out gives me confidence that his game is in a good enough place for another strong showing at the Earth Course this year.

Ryan Fox has been a little underwhelming on his last two starts but I’m expecting him to bounce back at a course that should suit this week.

Fox’s rise over the last couple of years saw him make new ground in his golfing career in 2023. After a positive start to the year on the DPWT, Fox spent a four-month stint on the PGA Tour where he played ultra-consistent golf, missing just two cuts in a twelve-event stretch and recorded five top 25s.

He headed back over to Europe in September, first finishing 3 rd in the Irish Open and then produced a scintillating back-nine performance at Wentworth in the BMW PGA Championship on the Sunday to gain the biggest victory of his career; against many of the elite opponents that he will once again face this week.

Fox subsequently finished, 2 nd to Fitzpatrick in the Dunhill Links three starts ago, though will need to be forgiven two below-par efforts on his two latest starts, where he’s finished 52 nd in the Andalucia Masters and was 51 st in last week’s Nedbank Challenge.

The New Zealander has gained strokes in all areas this year, ranking a solid top 40 in approach, off-the-tee and on the greens on the DP World Tour.

After finishing 28 th on debut in 2017 and 45 th in 2018, he returned to the Earth Course for the first time in four years in 2022, recording his best finish yet of 19 th . Where he got better as the week went on, finishing off with a 4-under 68.

Fox’s win in the Dunhill Links last year should work well, whilst he’s no stranger to winning in the UAE, having won the Ras Al Khaimah Championship last year. His win at Wentworth gives me and should certainly give him the confidence that he has what it takes to get the better of this elite field and break further ground this week.

Though Lucas Herbert has largely struggled for form on the PGA Tour this year, he’s looked a different player when making a rare step back to DPWT action and with his record at this course trending in a positive direction, I’m taking the talented Aussie to go better again this week.

In fourteen regular events on the PGA Tour this year, Herbert has missed five cuts but only recorded one official top 10, which came at the WGC-Match Play. This is in stark contrast to his DPWT form in 2023, where he finished 3 rd in the Dubai Desert Classic on his first start of the year and won the Korea Championship on his second start on the tour at the end of April.

He does arrive with a little more consistency in his recent PGA Tour results however, finishing 31 st or better in four of his last five starts and can hopefully build on that here.

We know what to expect with Herbert’s game. For all his approach play can be a little erratic, he makes up for it with the quality of his putting and driving, ranking 30 th on the greens and 65 th OTT on the PGA Tour this season. Indeed the putter has been his biggest weapon since turning pro and has looked excellent of late, ranking as the 5 th -best putter around over the last three months.

He finished 21 st at the Earth Course on his last visit in 2021, shooting three rounds under par. This was a marked improvement on his debut finish of 49 th in 2018.

Herbert’s excellent record in the Dubai Desert Classic, where he’s won and finished 3 rd gives me confidence he is capable of even better here, as does a 2 nd -place finish in Portugal. With rounds of 64 and 66 in Bermuda last week showing his game isn’t all that far away, I fancy him to be a player this week.

Matt Wallace earned his spot in this week’s field after a promising 15 th -place finish in the Nedbank Championship last week. He should be in a positive yet relaxed mood following that and with recent form and course form good, he can go well in Dubai.

Wallace became a PGA Tour winner earlier in the year when taking home the Corales Puntacana Championship. Though his form stuttered following that breakthrough victory, he’s looked a different beast back on the DPWT over the last few months.

He made his first DPWT start in seven months at the Czech Masters at the end of August, where he was an arguably unlucky runner-up to an inspired Todd Clements. Since then he has made a further eight starts and missed zero cuts, recording four top 25s. Two of them top 10s, when 6 th in the Dunhill Links and 9 th in Qatar two starts ago.

Despite this, Wallace still sat outside that all-important top 50 needed to get into this week but made that jump with his 15 th at Sun City. A week which promised and would’ve delivered even more if it wasn’t for a damaging three hole spell where he dropped five shots on Saturday.

His tee-to-green play has been very strong on the DPWT this year, ranking 3 rd . He has looked particularly strong with his irons, ranking 4 th for GIR and 9 th in approach. Something he showed last week, as the 6 th -best iron player in the field in South Africa.

Wallace was an excellent runner-up here on debut in 2018 and has been a perfectly solid 29 th and 28 th on his two subsequent starts in the event. With finishes of 2 nd at the Fire Course in 2020, 2 nd in the 2019 Dubai Desert Classic and top 10s in Abu Dhabi, Portugal and the Dunhill Links, his correlating form is stronger than most and can lead him to contending for a first DPWT success in five years.

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